Daily Strategy for Investors on August 29, 2019

Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) has made an analysis for the trading session on August 289, 2019, pointing out some of the must-know events in the equity market as follows:

1) From the concept of Thailand Focus , the government is confident that the Thai economy will be able to continue growing and see many opportunities for regional expansion to CLMV, especially Myanmar. However, for the private sector, such as BBL and MINT, there are concerns on risks and disruption in various forms. For WHA and SPI (Saha Group), AWS sees a positive factor and the prosperous future of the EEC.

2) Crude oil price revised up ; The EIA revealed crude oil inventory to revise down by as high as 10  million barrels in the week ending 23 August which is the most in five weeks. Even this has lessened investors’ concern on the slowdown in oil demand, AWS still have to be cautious on the global high oil supply.

3) The BDI Baltic Dry Index closed on the latest business day at 2,267.00 which was up by 54.00  or +2.44%.

4) Foreign investors continue to perform net sales net. It is expected to have fund flow from the ASEAN market to the US from the appreciation of USD with DXYO at Bt 98.17  per USD. US currency is likely to be further strengthened.

5) KBANK  revised the estimate of baht value at the end of the year from Bt 31.00 per USD to Bt 30.5 0 per USD.

6) The Economic Cabinet prepares to launch another lot of macro stimulus measures to stimulate investment – export on 30 August 2019  through the BOI and the Ministry of Commerce. They benefit CPALL and BJC.

7) Today’s investment theme: Speculate oil price to rise; Selective Buy for PTTEP. The stock has a chance to pay a special dividend like NOBLE. waits for the Cabinet’s macroeconomic stimulus measures on 30 August 2019. CPALL, BJC and OSP.

8) The SET range today is expected to be around 1,604-1,630 points with recommended stock of NOBLE, PTTEP, and CPALL.

 

Stock & Comment
NOBLE – TP Bt26.50
PTTEP – TP Bt148.00
CPALL    – TP Bt94.00

 

Pick of the day: NOBLE (AWS TP Bt26.50)
AWS forecast that NOBLE’s performance in 2019 will have the profit at Bt2.2bn or growing by 125%YoY and it still has attractive dividend which AWS expects that the firm will pay a dividend from the net profit in 2019 at Bt2.43 per share, representing 50% payout ratio or dividend yield of 10.2%. Furthermore, AWS believes that, in the future, the firm will have strategic partner to jointly develop the projects (JVs) which the firm will expand the launch of the project to meet the target of 3-5 projects per year from 1-2 projects per year, and it will fill the project to cover all segments as well as will increase management fee and land premium. As a consequent, AWS recommends buying with a target price at Bt26.50, based on PER 7.0x in 2020

NOBLE remains strong as its main trend is in the full uptrend from the occurrence of Daily, Weekly, Monthly Buy Signal. When considering NOBLE, the target price will be the new high at Bt27.00, while the short term stop loss for NOBLE is Bt23.30. (Resistance: 24.30, 24.80, 25.25; Support: 23.50, 23.10, 22.60).