Kasikorn Expects Thai GDP for 2020 to Contract 6% after Covid-19 Hits Global Economy

Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) expected Thailand’s GDP growth for 2020 to contract by 6%, which worse than the previous estimation of a 5% decline. Also pointed that  Thai economy in the remaining quarters of this year could further contract and face employment problem.

 

For the Thai economy, KResearch has yet to see a recovery in the second half of the year. Even though third phase of lockdown relaxation has imposed, but there are still some restriction on business services in order to maintain a social distancing regulations. As well as an uncertain situation whether Thailand could encounter a second wave of coronavirus pandemic if the government lift the health measures.

 

An overseas economy is also unstable due to the Covid-19 impact and the U.S. – China trade war. KResearch saws that if a global economy continues to slowdown, it would affect  Thai economy as well, especially export sector which will contract further to 6.1% in 2020 from the previous expected of a 5.6% fall.

 

Following an uncertainty, expecting Thai economy in the 3Q20 and the 4Q20 will still contraction. Pressures an overall economy of Thailand (GDP) in 2020 to decline by 6%. Thai economy in the second quarter is expected to be the most contraction of this year.