Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on September 29, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expects the SET today (29 Sep) to remain volatile, despite the increased likelihood of USD2.4tn stimulus package. Details are still needed in a joint meeting between Congress and the White House again.
AWS believes that the SET yesterday (28 Sep) increased 18.08 points (+1.45%) to reflect the valuation of the market after the decline last week, including positive factors from the CCSA approved the acceptance of foreign tourists in 6 groups, positively sentiment from both domestic and foreign stimulus measures, including the expectation of Window Dressing before the close of the 3Q20 budget, causing the market to increase the weight of investment in risky assets.
However, AWS looks at only short-term positive factors. The SET’s upside for the week is limited from the SET Index this week, which AWS estimates at 1,226-1,279 points, giving us the same investment strategy, focusing on holding more than 50% of cash and choose to invest in Laggard play, Defensive Stock (Dividend Stock) and DCA stocks based on AWS Theme Investment.
The Center for the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease Management 2019 has approved 6 groups of opening to foreign tourists – Yesterday (28 Sep), the Center for the Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease Management 2019 reported the progress of allowing all six groups of persons to travel to the Kingdom to encourage economy, especially business people and tourists who wish to stay in a long stay as approved by the Cabinet (Cabinet) on 15 September 2020, in which the incoming person must hold a special tourist visa.
AWS looks positively towards AOT, MINT, BDMS, AMATA, and WHA, which are the stocks in AWS theme Investment stocks.
The crude oil prices recover, recommend only speculative – AWS continues to give underweight weights in the energy segment. Although the crude oil price has started to recover, it is only a short-term positive factor that supports crude oil prices which causes us to recommend only speculation.
While the negative factors from the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic all over the world that has not yet been resolved so it is also a limiting factor in economic growth and the demand for oil in the world market, including supply problems from Libya and Iran increasing oil exports, by the latest information, Shell chartered a tanker for export from the Libyan port on 3 Oct. which is the first time that it shipped out of Libya since January.
Technical View – Today, AWS expects the SET Index to move between 1,255 – 1,281 points. (Support at 1,260 1,255 and 1,247 points and resistance at 1,267 1,272 and 1,281 points). The recommended stocks are GLOBAL, BEC, TVO, TMB and TISCO
1) Laggard Stocks (Short-term Trading within 1 month) – BAM, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, GPSC, MTC and WHA
2) Benefit from a successful vaccine development and opening countries to receive tourists measure (Short term trading 1-3 months) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Benefit according to the season (Short term trading 1-2 months) – BGRIM, CKP and GPSC
4) Benefit from the stimulus package (Short term trading 1-3 months) – CPALL, CRC, HMPRO, BJC, OSP, CBG, MTC, CK, BEM, SEAFCO, PYLON, TASCO, COM7 and WHA
5) Dividend Play (Middle term investing 6-12 months) – KKP, TISCO, QH, LH, ORI, NOBLE, DIF, INTUCH, HANA, EASTW, TTW, EGCO and RATCH
(6)Long-term cumulative shares (DCA) (Investing more than 1 year) – ADVANC, AOT, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, DIF and PTT