Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on December 18, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expects the SET today (18 Dec) to remain volatile in a sideway manner, despite the positive sentiment of the baht’s continued appreciation. As expected of the market, the BoT will be more difficult to intervene in the baht after the U.S. Treasury has placed Thailand on the Monitoring List and Bloomberg has raised Thailand as number one among the emerging market economies that are expected to have a strong economy in 2021.
For investment strategy, recommend to be cautious of short-term volatility, still recommend to sell some shares or full value while new investment round, recommend only speculation.
AWS sees that the Thai baht will continue to appreciate as expected of the market, the BoT will be more difficult to intervene in the Thai baht after the U.S. Treasury has placed Thailand in the Monitoring List, the latest baht is Bt29.904 per dollar (BoT data), partly due to the current account surplus and Thailand’s interest rate that is higher than the market, while inflation in Thailand remains low, a weak dollar after the Fed kept its policy rate at 0.0% -0.25% and the continued inflow of Fund Flow.
However, the U.S. Treasury (US Treasury) published an economic policy assessment report and exchange rates of major trading partners of the U.S., the latest issue (16 Dec), Thailand was listed in the Monitoring list of a trade surplus with the U.S. of more than USD20.0bn and the current account surplus more than 2% of GDP, which is a condition under the U.S. domestic law which in this round, there were 10 trading partners in the monitoring list: China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand and India.
However, the BoT clarified that the BoT still adopted a flexible exchange rate policy and will take care of the Thai baht when necessary and there is no policy to intervene in order to gain international trade advantage in any way.
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU
2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Stocks which expected that will have the outstanding performance in 4Q20 (Invest 1-2 months) – SAWAD, GULF, SPALI, ORI, WHA and STA
4) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
5) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB