Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on December 29, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expects the SET today (29 Dec) to move in the range of 1,430-1,477 points. The SET Index continues to fluctuate as a sideway down, after the market tried to test 1,500 points in December for the fourth time after yesterday (28 Dec), the SET Index hit a high of 1,513 points before closing down 33.64 points (-2.26%).
AWS sees that the SET Index has volatility from negative sentiment from (1) selling pressure on some stocks at full value and the share price exceeds the price based on fundamentals (2) reports of COVID-19 cases in the country where the number of cases has increased, and (3) Bangkok’s Soft Lockdown measures in closing four locations that risk of epidemic aggravate tourism-related businesses, including the situation of the epidemic in foreign countries remains a limiting factor in the economic recovery and the demand for crude oil. This is a negative factor for commodity stocks.
However, AWS believes that the downside frame remains limited by the chance of window dressing. For investment strategy, AWS also focuses on speculative investments in medium to large stocks that still have a fundamental upside.
WTI crude oil and Brent crude (BRENT) contract fell 61 cents (-1.26%) and fell 43 cents (-0.84%), respectively, due to the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak which limits the recovery in crude oil demand, including concerns about oversupply which Worldometers reported an average daily increase of new infections at 450,000 cases, with the U.S. still having the largest increase in new infections.
This includes the situation in England, Russia, Brazil and India that is still critical. Also, follow up on the U.S. crude oil reserves according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which will be reported on 30 Dec (10:30 GMT), Market Consensus expects that the U.S. crude reserves to increase by 1.07mn barrels in the past week after the previous week, crude oil reserves fell 0.56mn barrels.
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU
2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Stocks which expected that will have the outstanding performance in 4Q20 (Invest 1-2 months) – SAWAD, GULF, SPALI, ORI, WHA and STA
4) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
5) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB