Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on February 8, 2021 indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
Today’s investment overview – AWS expected the SET this week (8-11 Feb) to move in the range of 1,465-1,530 points. Through a vote of the U.S. House of Representatives but it still has to wait for Congress approval (15 Mar).
AWS believed that the overall investment in this week still a volatile week and waiting for additional new positive factors to support the market which Domestic issues follow up (1) The stimulus measures in the country that will enter the cabinet further and (2) Follow up on the gradual announcement of the operating results of listed companies.
While overseas issues are also monitored (1) Fed Monetary Policy Report (11 Feb) which will have issues regarding monetary policy formulation and economic development, including future economic trends (2) OPEC and IEA monthly oil market report for signs of world oil market trends (3) Trade balance report. (Import and export) from China today (8 Feb.) and (4) The global consumer price index (CPI) report, expected to be gradually reported on Wednesday (10 Feb).
AWS maintained its investment strategy by introducing profitable stocks that are at full value or exceeding fundamental value, and focus on investing in stocks with unique positive factors that AWS recommended in its Core Investment.
Bloomberg reported that the U.S. House of Representatives approved the budget by 219 votes against 209 and the U.S. Senate approved the budget draft 51-50 votes last Friday night for USD1.9tn for the stimulus package which it took President Joe Biden’s 15 hours to resolve the dispute from both sides.
The results of this approval allowed Democrats to push forward a stimulus to the U.S. economy pass Congress without the support of Republicans which a committee of Congress and the U.S. senators has time until 16 Feb to write a statement on the stimulus package under new advice on budget.
However, from an interview with the President of the U.S. expected that measures to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 will be approved by Congress before 15 Mar, the day before measures to aid the unemployed affected by the epidemic expire.
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported the U.S. trade in 2021 was deficit USD678.7bn, up 17.7%, the highest since 2008, hit by the COVID-19 epidemic which hinders trade flows in both the goods and services sector. Also, the exports fell 15.7% in 2020 to the lowest level since 2010, while imports fell 9.5%, the lowest in four years / The U.S. Department of Labor reported an increase of 49,000 jobs in nonfarm payrolls in Jan, below the Market Consensus expecting to increase 50,000 jobs/ The German Government Statistics Office (FSO) reported Germany’s industrial sector in Dec 2020 fell 1.9%, its first drop since Apr 20, and more than the Market Consensus had expected to drop 1.0% due to measures to control the spread of COVID-19 has dragged demand from other countries in the eurozone / Germany’s Ministry of Economy reported the domestic industrial orders in Dec fell 0.9%, while foreign orders fell 2.6% and eurozone dropped 7.5%.
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC and SCC
2) Green energy stocks (Trading within 3-6 months) – GPSC, EGCO, GULF, BGRIM, BPP, BCPG, EA and ACE
3) Expectations for the vaccine and increased stimulus measures (Trading for 3-6 months) – BBL, KKP, BEM, CPF, TU, M, OSP, CPALL, HMPRO, CRC and CHG
4) Stocks which expected that the performance in 4Q20 will outstand (1-2 months) – SAWAD, GULF, SPALI, ORI, WHA and STA
5) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
6) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB