Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) has made an analysis for the trading session on November 19, 2019, pointing out some of the must-know events in the equity market as follows:
1) The market is still waiting for the clarity of the trade negotiation between the US and China.
2) The NESDC released the 3Q19 GDP to grow by 2.4%YoY with a 9M19 growth of 2.5%YoY. The GDP was supported by a 4.2% increase in private consumption, a 2.8% growth in investment, divided into a 2.4% growth in the private sector and a 3.7% growth in government.
3) For the full-year 2019, the economy is expected to grow by 2.6% with a contraction in export value of -2.0%, while the private consumption and investment might expand by 4.3 and 2.7%, respectively. The headline inflation rate could be 0.8% on average and lastly, balance of trade is likely to have a surplus of 6.2% of GDP.
4) Thai Baht became appreciated again to Bt30.18 per US$
5) The SET is forecasted to be in a range of 1,600-1,622 points. Recommend stocks are ORI, EPG, and TCAP.
Stock & Comment
ORI – TP ฿10.00/share
EPG – TP ฿9.20/share
TCAP – TP ฿61.00/share
Pick of the day: ORI (BUY; AWS TP Bt10.00)
AWS states that stock prices in the real estate sector have dropped sharply. ORI stock price dropped by 13% since the end of last month, but the announcement of 3Q19 performance was not so bad, it still closed to the expectation. The 3Q19 net profit was at Bt687mn (-23%YoY and -7%QoQ),
The 4Q19 net profit is expected to be outstanding for the year due to the transfer of new projects including a stock release of more than Bt10bn. Thus, AWS recommends “BUY” with a target price in 2020 of Bt10.00 and expect dividend yield will be high at 9.0% in 2020.