Stocks in Focus on November 20, 2019: GULF and PTG

Stocks in Focus on November 20, 2019: GULF (KGI Securities TP ฿198.50/share) and PTG (KTB Securities ฿27.75/share).

Kaohoon Online has selected stocks with a potential of high growth for investors to consider on November 20, 2019.


KGI Securities has upgraded Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF)’s rating from “Neutral” to “Outperform” with a target price of ฿198.50/share.

KGI has stated that the overall tone of yesterday’s analyst meeting was positive. GULF expects to hold a 70% stake in Ca-Na LNG to power project (Vietnam) which would provide upside of Bt23.5/share from KGI’s prior assumption of a 50% stake in the project. KGI also increased the success factor from 75% to 80% in Laos hydro projects as the projects are expected to start tariff negotiations next year.

GULF completed the financing for Gulf Pluak Daeng project (GPD,1,750MW) two days ago. There would be Bt2/share lower than expected financing costs (3.3%) for the project (our prior assumption was 4.5%).

KGI upgrades GULF to Outperform, from Neutral, with a 2020 DCF target price of Bt198.5. In the near term, the Motorway O&M project is expected to be signed in 1Q20 (already included it in assumption). GULF’s aggressive capacity expansion in other countries would provide further upside.


KTB Securities has reiterated a BUY rating on PTG and a target price of Bt27.75, as PTG’s net profit is estimated to grow at CAGR of 62% in 2019-20E.

PTG’s management believes its 2019 target will be achievable given an in-line performance in the previous quarters and expect 2019 sales volume to grow +20% YoY, at least, and capacity utilization at its palm complex to be 95%. Additionally, PTG has a plan to list its subsidiaries LPG and palm complex on the SET by 2020.

KTBST thus maintains the 2019E/20E net profit growth forecast of +151% YoY/+18% YoY, while expecting 4Q19E earnings to soar +80% YoY, +16% QoQ to Bt300mn with sales volume to grow +20% YoY to 1.3bn liters and marketing margin to increase further to Bt1.85-1.90/liter.

PTG’s share price has gained 1% over a month, giving back some of its loss of 4% over the past three months. The share price will likely outperform the SET Index in expectation of 1) strong 4Q19E earnings outlook with marketing margin to increase further to Bt1.86/liter QTD and 2) bright 2020E outlook as palm complex business stands to benefit from rising B100 price. Additionally, the stock’s valuation remains attractive, considering the current market cap/gas station of Bt15mn is a similar level to a construction cost/gas station of Bt15-20mn.

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