Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on November 26, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expected the SET Index today (26 Nov) still moves in a side-way up frame, supported by capital funds inflow, baht appreciation and the increased price of crude oil supporting investment in energy stocks.
However, AWS believed that the SET movement will continue to be volatile as the market rallied 221 points (+18.5%) in November, AWS believed there will be short-term profit-taking, especially for stocks at Outperform Market, thus investing must be cautious about taking profit.
For investment strategy, AWS still recommended short-term speculation on stocks with only positive factors, for example energy stocks that still have an upside and stocks in Global Play, or investors who have held stocks in the past 1-2 weeks, recommend gradually taking profit from some stocks to reduce the risk of market fluctuation.
WTI crude oil continues to rise after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 754,000 barrel drop in U.S. crude oil last week, in contrast to the Market Consensus estimate of 127,000 barrels increase. The EIA reported crude oil reserves in Kuching, Oklahoma, the U.S. crude oil futures contract dropped 1.7 million barrels.
Gasoline reserves increased 2.2 million barrels, while refined oil reserves (including heating oil and diesel) dropped 1.4 million barrels, reducing the risk of the previous oversupply. This included positive factors from the progress in vaccine development by many companies. It is a factor supporting economic activities and the need for oil to recover.
AWS continued to recommend investing in energy stocks, with PTTEP (trading, TP Bt110), including stocks in the energy sector that still have enough upside for investment are PTT (trading, TP Bt45), BCP (trading, TP Bt25), SPRC (trading, TP Bt8.5) and TOP (trading, TP Bt53).
The U.S. Department of Commerce will report the second estimate of GDP in 3Q20 at 33.1%, a record high growth since the U.S. began collecting data in 1947, it has also reported the U.S. orders for durable goods such as airplanes, cars and large machines that last three years in Oct which increase d1.3%, increased further from Sept, which rose 2.1% and was higher than the market consensus expected to gain 1.0%.
The U.S. new home sales in Oct stood at 999,000 units, down 0.3%, but higher than the Market Consensus expected 970,000 units.
The U.S. consumer-confidence index in Nov fell to 76.9, down from 81.8 in Oct, but higher than the Market Consensus expected 76.8, with the consumer confidence index affected by the COVID-19 outbreak.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported the number of first-time unemployment benefits rose to 778,000 last week and surpassed the Market Consensus at 733,000.
Technical View – Today, AWS expected the SET Index to move between 1,389-1,441 points. The recommended stocks are TFFIF, VIH, SPA, CPF and TU
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU
2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
4) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB