Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on October 5, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS estimates the SET Index for the week (5-9 Oct) will move in a range of 1,211-1,260 points. AWS believes that investment in the week is still a week to monitor the situation in the U.S., especially the issuance of new economic remedial measures of the U.S. to reduce the impact of COVID-19, the amount is approximately USD2.2tn.
Last week (1 Oct), the White House passed a bill, but the Senate (Republicans ruling the majority) has not approved it due to differences in the limits, including that the U.S. leader infected COVID-19, both issues may affect the U.S. presidential election (3 Nov) and investment sentiment in October, boosting new positive factors, considering the additional stimulus measures at the CCSA meeting (7 Oct) for the last three months of 2020 (both co-pay and additional STV).
However, foreign risk factors: SET Index has a chance of falling 1,200 points if there are additional new risk factors. AWS investment strategy remains the same, focusing on holding more than 50% of cash and stocks in Defensive Stock (Dividend Stock) and DCA stocks based on AWS Investment Theme.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported a 661,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in September, lower than expected, but the unemployment rate showed good signs after dropping to 7.9%, a decrease from 8.4% in August and lower than expected at 8.2%. While the University of Michigan survey said that the U.S. consumer confidence index in September stood at 80.4, up from August at 74.1 and higher than expected at 79.0 which the confidence index continued to rise even the U.S. faces an epidemic of COVID-19.
Technical View – Today, AWS expects the SET Index to move between 1,221-1,245 with the recommended stocks are AEONTS, BANPU, PTG and BEM
1) Laggard Stocks (Short-term Trading within 1 month) – BAM, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, GPSC, MTC and WHA
2) Benefit from a successful vaccine development and opening countries to receive tourists measure (Short term trading 1-3 months) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Benefit according to the season (Short term trading 1-2 months) – BGRIM, CKP and GPSC
4) Benefit from the stimulus package (Short term trading 1-3 months) – CPALL, CRC, HMPRO, BJC, OSP, CBG, MTC, CK, BEM, SEAFCO, PYLON, TASCO, COM7 and WHA
5) Dividend Play (Middle term investing 6-12 months) – KKP, TISCO, QH, LH, ORI, NOBLE, DIF, INTUCH, HANA, EASTW, TTW, EGCO and RATCH
6) Long-term cumulative shares (DCA) (Investing more than 1 year) – ADVANC, AOT, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, DIF and PTT