ORI Jumps 6.3%, Analyst Gives a TP at ฿9.7 on Stronger-than-Expected 3Q20 Presales

ORI Jumps 6.3%, Analyst Gives a TP at ฿9.7 on Stronger-than-Expected 3Q20 Presales

The share price of Origin Property Public Company Limited (ORI) rose ฿0.40/share or 6.30% to trade at ฿6.75/share as of 11:42 local time in Thailand with a trading value of 76 million baht.


KTB Securities (Thailand) (KTBST) has given a “BUY” recommendation on ORI with a target price of ฿9.70/share, estimating 3Q20 presales stronger than expected.


KTBST stated that ORIs CEO said its 3Q20 presales increased +14% QoQ to Bt7.5bn from Bt6.6bn in 2Q20. Of this, 81% came from condo projects and the remaining 19% from SDH/TH projects, or 58% were ready-to-move projects and 42% from work-in-process projects. In 9M20, presales totaled Bt19bn, accounting for 88% of ORIs 2020 target of Bt21.5bn.


KTBST is positive toward ORIs earnings after its 3Q20 presales of Bt7.5bn exceeded its quarterly estimate of Bt7.0bn, while the company had registered Bt6.0bn in mid-September. Such an increase was due primarily to strong feedback for the newly launched projects: The Origin On-nut worth Bt700mn, which was sold out, and Knightsbridge Space Rama IV worth Bt2.3bn, of which take-up rate reached 70% following the VIP soft launch  an official launch is set in 4Q20. 


ORI has a plan to launch 4-5 condo projects in 4Q20E, which would boost 2020E presales to Bt27-28bn, a similar level to a level ORI registered in 2019. ORI set its 2020 presales target of Bt21.5bn.


Reiterated a BUY rating and a target price of Bt9.70, which is pegged to 2021E PER of 7.8x, or 5-yr average level. KTBST forecast ORIs earnings to return to the path to growth in 2021E. In 2020E, KTBST forecast net profit to decline -11% to Bt2.7bn and core profit to edge down -2% to Bt2.5bn, while 3Q20E core profit would grow YoY, QoQ to Bt700-800mn compared to Bt652mn in 3Q19 and Bt707mn in 2Q20. In 2021E, core profit would rebound strongly +22% to Bt3.1bn, as the backlog has covered 92-64% of KTBST 2020-21E revenue forecast.