Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on October 12, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expects the SET this week (12-16 Oct.) to move in a range of 1,244-1,293 points, a sideway trend, despite positive factors from the Cabinet meeting (12 Oct) which expected to consider the renewal of tax measures for companies and stores which have the meeting and seminars for employees in other provinces that the expenses can be deducted twice as tax (originally the measure will end Dec 20) as proposed by the Ministry of Finance.
However, there are several uncertainties that need to be monitored which are (1) Thai stock market closes (13 Oct) on the day of King Rama IX’s death (2) the domestic political factors With a political rally (14 Oct) calling for the prime minister to resign (3) the uncertainty about the second round of debate between the U.S. presidential counterpart (115 Oct) will happen or not because Trump does not want to Debate Online (may be postponed to 22 Oct) and (4) the conflict between the U.S. and China after the U.S. state prepares to consider banning Chinese financial applications (Alipay and WeChat Pay), citing US citizens’ privacy security reasons.
To sum up, AWS recommended long-term investment in Defensive Stock (Dividend Stock) and DCA stocks based on AWS Theme Investment.
The U.S. economic stimulus measures still to be monitored – the tendency to Mr. Joe Biden, a Democratic candidate, won the U.S. presidential election on 3 November 2020 after the first round of debate last month, the Biden’s popular rating is ahead of President Trump in several polls that bring the markets back in hopes of seeing a major stimulus package in the U.S.
Previously, however, the U.S. leaders have urged Congress to approve measures, including giving out cash checks to USD 1,200 each, including a USD25bn injection to help the aviation industry and USD135.0bn for small businesses.
Including the White House has made a new proposal to Democrats to increase the amount of the stimulus to USD1.8tn (Previously USD1.6tn), while Democrats have proposed the same USD2.2tn.
Technical View – Today, AWS expects the SET Index to move between 1,253-1,280 with the recommended stocks are EA, TISCO, PM, SPVI and NOBLE
1) Laggard Stocks (Short-term Trading within 1 month) – BAM, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, GPSC, MTC and WHA
2) Benefit from a successful vaccine development and opening countries to receive tourists measure (Short term trading 1-3 months) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Benefit according to the season (Short term trading 1-2 months) – BGRIM, CKP and GPSC
4) Benefit from the stimulus package (Short term trading 1-3 months) – CPALL, CRC, HMPRO, BJC, OSP, CBG, MTC, CK, BEM, SEAFCO, PYLON, TASCO, COM7 and WHA
5) Dividend Play (Middle term investing 6-12 months) – KKP, TISCO, QH, LH, ORI, NOBLE, DIF, INTUCH, HANA, EASTW, TTW, EGCO and RATCH
6) Long-term cumulative shares (DCA) (Investing more than 1 year) – ADVANC, AOT, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, DIF and PTT