Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on November 30, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expected the SET Index this week (30 Nov – 4 Dec) to move in a range of 1,398-1,473 points and remains volatile. Despite support by capital inflows, AWS believed there will be a narrower frame from last week.
This week there will be an OPEC+ meeting. Previously, the market expected OPEC+ to delay plans to increase production. However, if it is expected, it must be cautious of selling as a sell-on fact after crude oil prices in November rose 27% from the end of October, including following up on the Thai cabinet meeting and Eurogroup Meetings.
For investment strategy, for investors who have held stocks in the past 1-2 weeks, recommend gradually taking profit from some stocks to reduce the risk of market fluctuation while investing during this week, recommend only speculation.
The OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 30 Nov-1 Dec, with the market expected to postpone the schedule to add 2 million barrels per day from the previously which scheduled to increase production on 1 Jan 20, away for at least 3-6 months because the current crude oil price is at risk from a new round of lockdown measures in Europe that depress the expansion of crude oil demand but Libya’s rising oil production increase the risk of oil oversupply.
However, AWS looked at the crude oil price movement into 3 cases which are (1) Best Case (10% weight) OPEC+ resolved to reduce the production (Very difficult) WTI crude oil price will rise. (2) Base Case (60% weight) OPEC+ resolved to postpone the plan to cut production as expected, sell on fact potential in the short term, and AWS expected crude oil prices to shrink and it will move in a frame of USD40-45 per barrel and (3) Worst Case (30% weight) OPEC+ resolved to plan to increase production capacity, oil prices have a chance to drop below USD40 a barrel.
AWS weighed the most in the base cases, which will affect the short-term price of energy stocks if OPEC+ is up to the market or worse than expected. Although AWS believed that crude oil prices in 2021 will have a chance to increase from the recovery of crude oil demand. But for a short term, AWS recommended taking profit in Energy stocks to reduce the risk.
Technical View – Today, AWS expected the SET Index to move between 1,422-1,455 points. The recommended stocks are ANAN, DOD, GFPT, KCE and CRC
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU
2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
4) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB