Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on January 14, 2021 indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
Today’s investment overview – AWS expects the SET today (14 Jan) to move within the range of 1,530-1,565 points. AWS expects the SET movement to have a short-term fluctuation in the sideway due to negative factors expected to be a slight negative sentiment to the market, especially foreign factors both the political situation in the U.S. and the decline in crude oil prices pressured the overall investment.
For investment strategy, AWS also recommends selling and taking profit at full value or exceed the fundamental value while new investment round, recommend investing in positive stocks based on AWS Core Investment.
Although the U.S. Government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 3.2mn barrel drop in crude oil reserves, more than the Market Consensus estimate of 1.9mn. But the reserve of finished oil increased which Gasoline reserves rose 4.4mn barrels last week (more than the Market Consensus expected to increase 2.1mn barrel) and refined oil reserves (Heating oil and diesel) increased by 4.8mn barrels (more than the Market Consensus expected up 1.9mn barrels).
Also, the Crude oil prices continued to suffer a negative factor from the appreciating dollar, including the situation of the epidemic of COVID-19 that spread continuously in the U.S. which will affect the economy and the oil demand.
The latest data from Worldometer reports that the COVID-19 situation in the U.S. remains the number 1 in the world in terms of COVID-19 cases and number of deaths, AWS only views it as a negative factor in the short-term energy share price.
AWS expects banking results (8 banks studied by AWS) to have a net profit of 4Q20 of Bt32bn, up 11.9%QoQ, despite NIM in a downward trend but also benefited from a lower provision stable loan growth trend after most banks still monitor credit quality factors after NPL remains high.
While the impact of the new epidemic was slightly impacted by a relatively unstoppable lockdown measure like 6M20 so that AWS revised its 2021 earnings forecast, expecting the banking group to see a 23%YoY increase in total net profit.
However, AWS weighed its investment just neutral after the price of stocks has increased so the share price has a limited upside, AWS choses BBL (Trading, TP Bt142.50) and TMB (Trading, TP Bt1.30) as top picks.
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC and SCC
2) Green energy stocks (Trading within 3-6 months) – GPSC, EGCO, GULF, BGRIM, BPP, BCPG, EA and ACE
3) Expectations for the vaccine and increased stimulus measures (Trading for 3-6 months) – BBL, KKP, BEM, CPF, TU, M, OSP, CPALL, HMPRO, CRC and CHG
4) Stocks which expected that the performance in 4Q20 will outstand (1-2 months) – SAWAD, GULF, SPALI, ORI, WHA and STA
5) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
6) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB