KTBST Securities (KTBST) maintained its “Overweight” rating on the energy sector despite the plummet in oil prices overnight.
KTBST had a slight negative view on the decline in oil prices, seeing that the change was due to the OPEC+ decision for an output increase, which is inline with KTBST’s speculation earlier on the short-term fluctuation of oil prices.
In the meantime, KTBST grew more cautious on the spreading of the Covid-19 Delta variant that could impact global demand. However, KTBST expected limited impact on major oil consumption such as the U.S. and E.U., seeing that there is an increase in cases, but the number of fatalities did not increase to the same level as infection rate, which is due to the Covid-19 vaccine efficacy that prevents severeness in patients. Due to this reason, there is no lockdown measure, which would result in less impact on oil consumption.
KTBST maintained its “Overweight” rating on the energy sector, choosing Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP) as its top pick with a target price at ฿72.00/share, believing the company to benefit from the recovery in the gross refining margin in 2H21. Meanwhile, global demand is expected to overtake supply.
In addition, KTBST was still cautious on the Covid-19 situation in major oil consumption countries that if imposed a lockdown restriction, it could impact demand for oil.