Globlex Securities (GBS) published an analysis of the Thai stock market outlook in October, predicting a sideways upward trend as the country’s COVID-19 situation improves. Plus, a rise in oil prices has pushed energy stocks higher. The SET Index is expected to move between 1,570 and 1,650 points. As a result, GBS recommended investors to accumulate stocks that benefit from rising gross refining margins (GRM) and a downward trend in COVID-19 infections.
Daily COVID-19 cases in Thailand have decreased to less than 10,000, and over 53,784,812 doses of the vaccine have been administered.
Besides this, the Thai market is expected to be supported by the Thai cabinet’s approval of six new special economic zones for future industries in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC). This move aims to strengthen the country’s position in order to attract more foreign investment in key industries such as modern automotive manufacturing, smart electronics, logistics, aviation, agriculture, and biological technology.
Oil prices increased by 9.5% in September, while WTI crude futures increased by 2.1% in the third quarter of 2021, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of gains. OPEC+ recently decided to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day beginning in November, given the fact that countries such as the United States and India demand higher production increments in order to limit the spike in prices.
This has a positive impact on energy stocks, which have a large market capitalization and thus dominate the index’s movement.
Factors to monitor include flash floods in several provinces, political uncertainty caused by the ruling party’s stability, and the possibility of loosening additional locks. The Bank of Thailand publishes the minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee meetings, the industrial sentiment index, an additional monetary policy report, and export-import data.
As a result, GBS recommends investing in stocks that benefit from the rising GRM; energy stocks such as TOP, SPRC, and PTTGC. Following that are stocks that profited from the decline in new COVID-19 cases, including MINT, ERW, CENTEL, AWC, SHR, ASAP, AOT, BEM, and BTS.