As oil prices continued to maintain at a higher level despite dropping from more than $71 a barrel to mid $68.50. The current level is still above Bloomberg Consensus of $63.60 per barrel in 1Q and an average of $64.58 per barrel in 2021.
Mr. Teerawut Kannibhakul, First Vice President of CGS-CIMB Securities, through Kaohoon TV Online Program on March 11, 2021, stated that there is a potential for a short-term speculation, citing that the normal cycle of oil stocks will reach their peak in 2Q to 3Q. However, the peak seasonality this year could be delayed by 2-3 months as many countries have just started to recover from the lockdown easing in which oil demand and consumption will return gradually as long as OPEC and its allies maintain the output. When the group decides to ramp up its production, a profit-taking in the stocks could occur.
Mr. Kannibhakul gave a “Trading” recommendation on oil stocks to speculate on the cycle, especially 1Q21 earnings that will record a stock gain due to an increase in oil prices since late last year, which is an opportunity to speculate.
Mid 2Q to the end of 3Q should be more cautious as there could be another profit-taking after the announcement of 1Q earnings, which could happen in mid 2Q.
During this period, Mr. Kannibhakul expected refinery-related stocks to perform better after the gross refinery margin (GRM) was at a lower level for more than a year and a half due to lower oil demand. Amid gradual recovery, refinery-related stocks such as TOP, BCPG, SPGC and ESSO are expected to pick up the pace.
As for petrochemical stocks, Mr. Kannibhakul stated that the share prices have been edging higher prior to the recovery of refinery stocks and expected the petrochem stocks to have a slight upside moving forward.