Country Group Securities (CGS) forecasts the SET Index to trade sideways this week, between 1,520 and 1,560 points, as the Covid-19 outbreak continues to overshadow the market.
In Thailand, at present, the new Covid-19 infection is developing rapidly and has spread across the country, with a surge in the Delta variant. As of Monday, July 26, Thailand had recorded 512,678 coronavirus cases and 4,146 deaths, ranking Thailand ninth in the world for most positive Covid-19 cases.
The market has not yet responded to the following concerns: 1) the tougher restrictions in provincial cities to prevent outbreaks. However, the fresh Covid-19 measures is likely to have a negative effect on the economy and 2) on the profit of listed companies, thereby increasing the downside risk to the forecast; as a result, investors are urged to closely monitor the outbreak in provincial cities.
Thai exports in June 2021 expanded 44%, reaching an 11-year high, which was higher than the market forecast at 39%, thanks to the recovery in the global economy. Meanwhile, imports in June grew 53.75% with a trade surplus of 945.06 million dollars. As for the first half of 2021, Thai exports rose 15.53% and imports grew 26.15% with a trade surplus of 2,439.15 million dollars.
According to statistics, product exports of automobiles and auto components increased by 78% YoY, electronics increased by 42% YoY, electronic circuits increased by 33% YoY, chemicals increased by 47% YoY, and agriculture increased by 60% YoY. As a result, CGS views it as a bullish sign for stocks such as AH, DELTA, HANA, KCE, NER, PTTGC, and SAT.
However, in the second half of the year, investors shall closely monitor the outbreak, as many countries are experiencing a resurgence of Covid-19 and some of those are Thailand’s major trading partners, including the United States (15%), ASEAN (13.4%), and Japan (9.8%).
For investment strategy, CGS suggests stocks impacted by the Covid-19 epidemic for short-term investing, such as imports (ASIAN, DELTA, HANA, KCE, NER and TU), and telecommunications and power (ADVANC, BGRIM, BCPG, GPSC and GULF). Also flavors Covid Plays like BCH and CHG.
CGS has given a target price of 90 baht on KCE on an estimated net profit of 531 million baht in 2Q21 (+644%YoY and +6%QoQ).