Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) has made an analysis for the trading session on December 3, 2019, pointing out some of the must-know events in the equity market as follows:
1) Net sell performed by foreign investors yesterday were Bt2.35bn after they have shorted SET50 Futures contracts as much as 50,000 contracts on Friday.
2) President Donald Trump announces a new round of trade war after imposing the tariff on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina.
3) “DTAC” offers the NBTC to postpone the 5G auction waiting to bring the 3500 MHz spectrum to participate in the same auction as well as suggests a ceiling limit of 2600 MHz to prevent a shortage of the number of spectrums.
4) Crude oil price was up due to the expectation that the OPEC will decide to extend the time in cutting their oil production to mid-2020 as well as to reduce oil production from the increasing amount of 1.2 million barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day in the meeting on 5-6 December 2019.
5) There will be the Fed meeting on 10-11 December 2019 where it is expected to maintain interest rates at 1.75%.
6) Today’s index range is expected to be at 1,560-1,575 points. Recommended stocks are ORI, PTTEP and AMATA.
Stock & Comment
ORI – TP ฿10.00/share
PTTEP – TP ฿147.00/share
AMATA – TP ฿30.50/share
Pick of the day: ORI (BUY; AWS TP Bt10.00)
ORI is a real estate that benefits from economic stimulus measures, from the transfer fee and mortgage fee from 3.0% to 0.02% and “Baan Dee Mee Down” in which Bt50,000 cash back down per case is given for the first 100,000 cases registered within 11 December 2019 – 31 March 2020.
The 4Q19 net profit of ORI is expected to be the highest level of the year driven by the transfer of completed projects such as KnightsBridge Prime Sathorn at the amount of Bt2.50bn. In addition, ORI has projects in stock that are ready to be transferred over Bt10.00bn (40% of projects in stock is those under Bt3mn).
The 2019 pre sales are expected to surpass the target of Bt28.00bn after reaching Bt24.00bn in the 9M18. In the 4Q19, there are another 8 projects worth totaling of Bt11.bn have been launched. This is regarded as a quarter with the highest launching of the year.
In the 1Q20, the company plans to open 2 hotels, which will help driving recurring income to be higher. It also plans to bring PRIMO, an integrated services company, to register in the mai at the end of 2020.
In this regard, AWS recommends BUY with a target price of Bt10.00 and up to 9% dividend yield. ORI remains in the downtrend from the occurrence of Weekly and Monthly Sell Signal. However, it remains strong in the short-term from the occurrence of Daily Buy Signal. If the share could close above Bt7.00 at the weekly market, it will resume a medium-term strength form the occurrence of new Weekly Buy Signal with the first target at Bt8.45 and Bt9.75, respectively. Its short-term stop loss is at Bt6.50 (Resistance: 6.95, 7.00, 7.05; Support: 6.85, 6.80, 6.75).