Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on March 31, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
1) Dow Jones and Commodity yesterday – Dow Jones was up by 690.70 points (+3.19%), WTI crude oil price dropped by USD1.42 (-6.6%) and gold price fell by USD10.9 (-0.66%).
2) COVID -19 situation showed positive signs after the WHO and the US have made progress on the vaccine, the WHO identified initial findings that some drugs may be effective in treating C OVID -19.
3) Economic statistics for today, there will be a report of China’s manufacturing index PMI in March (February at 35.7 points / March is expected at 45 points) and the US Consumer Confidence Report in March which expected to decrease from last month .
Today, AWS believes the SET Index has a chance to recover due to (1) Establishment of SSF (Beginning 1 April) and (2) Buying back shares in the energy sector after having the positive signs from the negotiations between the two leaders of the US and Russia. However, the fundamentals of crude oil prices are still weak and the strong attitude of Saudi Arabia will be a factor to pressure crude oil prices so the investments still remain cautious about the risk of fluctuations in crude oil prices .
4) This morning, crude oil prices recovered both WTI and Brent due to lower concerns about the oil price war situation after the leaders of the US and Russia agreed to hold a cabinet-related meeting to continuously discuss oil prices.
5) Positive factors in the short-term, AWS sees that the SEC approved the establishment of a savings fund that focuses on investing in listed securities (Super Savings Fund, Listed Securities) or SSF, beginning 1 April 2020. There will be share among SSF’s target groups are PTT, PTTEP, BJC, CPALL, KBANK, AOT, GULF, EGCO, INTUCH, ADVANC and BDMS so AWS estimates that the investment in the special SSF will not be different from the original LTF (focus on SET50). Also, including new shares such as BAM.
Today, AWS expects the SET to be with the range 1,077-1,105 (Support at 1,086 1,077 and 1,065 // Resistance at 1,096 1,105 and 1,117).
1) Slightly affected stocks from COVID-19, AWS chooses TU (TP Bt18.40) GFPT (TP Bt12.00) CPF (TP Bt33.00) TFG*(TP Bt5.35) BJC*(TP Bt48.00) CPALL (TP Bt85.00) and TQM*(TP Bt69.00).
2) Down side limiting and strong cash flow, AWS chooses BGRIM (TP Bt59.00) EGCO (TP Bt358.00) GULF*(TP Bt164.00) GPSC (TP Bt82.00) and RATCH*(TP Bt72.25).
3) Stocks which obtain the benefit from work from home measure, AWS chooses WP* ADVANC (TP Bt250.00) INTUCH*(TP Bt76.75) DTAC*(TP Bt48.50) TRUE*(TP Bt4.50) DIF*(TP Bt17.20) and COM7*(TP Bt28.50).
4) Stocks for long-term investment (DCA), AWS chooses ADVANC (TP Bt250.00) AOT (TP Bt79.00) BDMS (TP Bt27.50) BEM (TP Bt12.50) and DIF*(TP Bt17.00).
5) Defensive & high dividend, AWS chooses KKP (Div.Yld. 15.9%) QH (Div.Yld. 9.3%) DIF*(Div.Yld 8.2%) TISCO (Div.Yld. 8.7%) INTUCH*(Div.Yld. 6.2%) TTW*(Div.Yld. 4.8%) and RATCH*(Div.Yld. 4.2%) *IAA Consensus