Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on April 3, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
1) Dow Jones and Commodity yesterday – Dow Jones market rose 469.93 points (+2.24%), WTI crude oil price was up USD5.01 (+24.7%) and gold price increased USD46.3 (+2.91%).
Investment overview today, AWS still sees the SET Index with a high volatility. There are positive factors supporting the market such as the increase in crude oil prices. However, the stock market is still at risk from (1) the COVID-19 situation, where the total number of people infected worldwide exceeds 1 million people, (2) weak US economic statistics and (3) uncertainty in crude oil prices. The increase in oil prices responds to comments from US leaders, but it has not yet been confirmed by both Saudi Arabia and Russia.
2) Crude oil prices increased as a short-term supporting investment in energy stocks, it still have to be careful about profit taking before the holidays due to the uncertainty of the situation. AWS estimates that (1) Increase in production capacity of Saudi Arabia, there is a chance of lower than the plan due to decrease in demand from Asia and Europe from COVID-19 problem, which is in line with the EIA report on crude oil demand that the current demand is reduced by more than 20 million barrels per day and (2) the risk of Saudi crude oil export price declaration this Sunday (5 April), AWS estimates that there is still a possibility that Saudi Arabia will announce the reduction of oil export prices to maintain market share which if the actual export price has been reduced, it will make the situation of oil price war this time take more time.
3) The situation of COVID-19 worldwide exceeds 1 million cases, while the number of new cases in the US and Europe tends to not decline.
4) The US Department of Labor reported the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits for the first time has risen to 6.6 million cases last week, the highest record, which was more than the analysts had predicted earlier with 3 million cases.
Today, AWS expects the SET to be with the range 1,115-1,165 (Support at 1,129 1,115 and 1,092 // Resistance at 1,152 1,165 and 1,189) which the recommended stocks are TRUE, BEM, STA, PLANB and BEM (Follow in the Technical Express analysis).
1) Slightly affected stocks from COVID-19, AWS chooses TU (TP Bt18.40) GFPT (TP Bt12.00) CPF (TP Bt33.00) TFG*(TP Bt5.35) BJC*(TP Bt48.00) CPALL (TP Bt85.00) and TQM*(TP Bt69.00).
2) Down side limiting and strong cash flow, AWS chooses BGRIM (TP Bt59.00) EGCO (TP Bt358.00) GULF*(TP Bt164.00) GPSC (TP Bt82.00) and RATCH*(TP Bt72.25).
3) Stocks which obtain the benefit from work from home measure, AWS chooses ADVANC (TP Bt250.00) INTUCH*(TP Bt76.75) DTAC*(TP Bt48.50) TRUE*(TP Bt4.50) DIF*(TP Bt17.40) and COM7*(TP Bt28.50).
4) Stocks for long-term investment (DCA), AWS chooses ADVANC (TP Bt250.00) AOT (TP Bt79.00) BDMS (TP Bt27.50) BEM (TP Bt12.50) and DIF*(TP Bt17.40).
5) Defensive & high dividend, AWS chooses KKP (Div.Yld. 15.9%) QH (Div.Yld. 9.3%) DIF*(Div.Yld 8.2%) TISCO (Div.Yld. 8.7%) INTUCH*(Div.Yld. 6.2%) TTW*(Div.Yld. 4.8%) and RATCH*(Div.Yld. 4.2%) *IAA Consensus.