Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on November 25, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expected SET Index today (25 Nov) has a chance of volatility after the stock market continued to increase in the frame of 15% -20%, resulting in profit-taking, especially during yesterday’s trading afternoon (24 Nov), reflected by the weakening foreign investors’ purchasing power.
The risk that still needs to be monitored is the domestic political situation that is still a limiting factor to the upside of the SET Index. However, the baht is likely to appreciate continuously from capital inflows.
In addition, macroeconomic fundamentals supported by (1) Thailand’s low inflation rate of 0.4% per year (compared to the inflation target of 2.5% per year), lower than the global average inflation of 2% (2) Continuing current account surplus (3) Monetary Policy of the BoT that still has no trend to cut interest rates (4) the QE of many countries around the world as a supporting factor. Therefore, investment still has to be cautious of taking profit.
For investment strategy, AWS still recommends short-term speculation or investors who hold stocks in the past 1 – 2 weeks, recommend gradually taking profit from some stocks to reduce the risk of market fluctuation.
The latest WTI oil price rose 4.3% as a result of (1) Expected that OPEC+ group will postpone plans to add 2 million barrels per day to at least three to six months due to supply problems. Currently, OPEC + will hold an oil production policy meeting on 30 Nov – 1 Dec.
(2) The progress in the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 from many companies (AstraZeneca, co-developed with the University of Oxford / Pfizer, developed in collaboration with BioNTech and Moderna Inc.), announced the success of the efficacy of COVID-19 protection at level 90% -95% while the share price in the energy and petrochemical sector continued to increase, causing limited upsides such as PTT TOP, PTTGC and BANPU.
Therefore, it is recommended only for speculation. While the companies that have an upside of 10% -20% are PTTEP, BCP, IRPC, SPRC and IVL.
Technical View – Today, AWS expected the SET Index to move between 1,380-1,420 points. The recommended stocks are MBK, TRUE, STEC, NOBLE and ACE
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU
2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
4) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB