Analysts expected strong 1Q21 results from TPI Polene Public Company Limited (TPIPL) as the petrochemical business would grow by leaps and bounds following LDPE and EVA spreads spiked. The energy business will begin recognizing revenue from the Incinerator Boiler installation completed. While the cement business will see positive as domestic demand increased 1-2% YoY.
Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) projected TPIPL’s 1Q21 earnings to grow at least 100% YoY to a billion baht. 2021 operating outlook would be bright driven by 1) the completion of a machine efficiency improvement project to reduce energy consumption at cement plants and the use of RDF for power production along with coal.
2) For the energy business, TPIPL has planned to ramp up utilization rate to 75% from 63% in 2020 as Boiler installation is completed and 3) Petrochem business production runs at full capacity.
However, there are risks from being sued for mining outside the concession certificate with a massive damage claiming.
Overall, net profit in 2021 could reach a record high as TPIPL’s performance remains on a growth path. In 2018, TPIPLE’s earnings were 323,78 million baht and skyrocketed to 1,393.52 million baht and 1,498.15 million baht in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Therefore, ASPS recommended “BUY” with a target price of ฿2.06/share.
Maybank Kim Eng (Maybank) expected strong 1Q21 results with a high profit of 1.175 billion baht (+191% YoY), driven by LDPE – Ethylene spreads jumping to USD575/tonne (+55% QoQ, +108% YoY). 2Q21 outlook would be better because spreads continue to rise to USD692/tonne. Maybank raised its earnings forecast while expecting earnings this year to rise to 3.519 billion baht, soaring 135% YoY. Due to revised estimates, target price increased to ฿2.20/share with “BUY” recommendation.