BEM Gains 4%, Analyst Recomm. “BUY” as Ridership on MRT Shows Recovery Signs

BEM gained 4%, analyst stated that the firm had already bottomed out from the worst in August as ridership on rail systems and highway traffic show signs of recovery

The share price of Bangkok Expressway and Metro Public Company Limited (BEM) rose ฿0.35/share or 4.17% to ฿8.75/share as of 15:55 local time in Thailand, with a trading value of 781 million baht.

Phillip Securities Thailand stated that BEM had already bottomed out from the worst in August. Ridership on rail systems and highway traffic have declined dramatically by -47.5% and -78.3% a day when compared to the same period of previous year, respectively, and by -5.4% and -19.2% month-on-month basis.

The third quarter of this year was the worst due to the COVID-19 epidemic, although this was partially offset by TTW’s 221 million baht income. Phillip anticipates that BEM will begin to rebound in 4Q21, as Thailand began to lift some of lockdowns and travel restrictions from September 1.

As of September 3, 2021, highway driving and rail ridership were 811,000 cars and 101,000 passengers, respectively, up from 594,000 cars and 62,000 passengers in August, indicating a quarter-on-quarter improvement but remaining weak when compared to a year earlier.

Phillip forecast BEM’s 2021 earnings of 1,299 million baht (-36.7% YoY) and will increase to 3,864 million baht in 2022 (+197.4% YoY), mainly driven by forward projects such as MRT Orange Line and Purple Line. Thus, giving a target price of 10.90 baht with a “BUY” recommendation.

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