Goldman Sachs warns of the coming correction in oil prices despite a fast recovery from April’s plummet, supported by the production cuts from OPEC and its allies since May.
“With oil now above $40/bbl, supplies will be incentivized to return, but we believe the risks to the downside have increased substantially and are now looking for a 15-20% correction which may already be underway after Monday’s modest sell-off,” wrote Goldman Sachs. “Despite the rally, we have been hesitant to recommend a long position this early in the cycle for several reasons.”
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the surplus inventory around 1 billion barrels still exists as global tourism remained mostly muted due to concern of coronavirus. Which was why Goldman Sachs was surprised by the rally, giving the fact the oil inventory is gushing.
Goldman Sachs stated that the commodities rise ahead of the fundamentals, and the return is still well behind spot price growth. More importantly, the fund inflows from retail investors since early April have generated a -20% return despite a 95% rally in spot WTI prices.