Analysts at Goldman Sachs expected oil demand worldwide will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2022 and believed that in the long-term it would not peak before 2030.
The U.S. investment bank estimated global oil demand would shrink by 8% this year, rebound by 6 % in 2021 and “fully recover” to 2019 levels by 2022, citing a pick-up in commuting, a shift to private transportation and higher infrastructure spending, reported CNBC.
Gasoline was the fastest demand recovery among oil products as a result of an improvement in broader commuting activity, a shift from public to private transportation, and a higher use of cars to substitute air travel for domestic tourism — particularly in the U.S., Europe and China.
While, diesel demand was forecast to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2021, boosted by government-led spending on infrastructure projects, according to CNBC report.
However, Goldman Sachs marked jet fuel demand as the “biggest loser” amid this health crisis, due to the consumer confidence on flying set to stay low in the absence of a vaccine and consumer behavior potentially set to change over the long term. Meantime, forecasted jet fuel demand to recover to 2019 levals at least before 2023.