Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on September 11, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
AWS expects the SET Index today to move sideways to sideway down after yesterday (10 Sep) was down slightly by 2.51 points or 0.19%, which was wrong from expected to recover. This is partly due to concerns over the global COVID-19 pandemic, while domestic factors remain concerned about the political situation. While today there are no positive factors from foreign that can drive the market.
As the results of the ECB meeting resolved to maintain interest rates and PEPP policy as expected, while the number of applicants for initial jobless claims and U.S. crude oil reserves were more than expected. They were factors that depress the overall investment. We recommend adding weight to Dividend Play and DCA stocks based on our Theme Investment.
WTI crude oil prices fell more than 75 cents (-2.0%) after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 2 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil reserves last week. It was the first increase in six weeks and countered analysts’ estimate of a drop of 500,000 barrels.
The report was in line with the report by the American Petroleum Institute (API), the U.S. oil industry group, previously disclosed that U.S. crude reserves were up 3 million barrels last week. The EIA also reported that reserves at Kuching, Oklahoma, where the U.S. crude futures were delivered, were up 1.9 million barrels.
The U.S. Department of Labor revealed the number of first time jobless benefits applicants at 884,000 people last week which higher than the previously analyst estimated at 850,000 people while the statistical aspect, 4-week average of the number of applicants for first-time unemployment benefits which is considered a good labor market gauge due to the reduction of the weekly volatility to 970,750, dropped 21,750 compared to the previous week.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported the Producer Price Index (PPI) in August rose 0.3%MoM, but it was an increase at a lower rate compared to July’s 0.6%MoM increase. The increase as a result of price increases in the service sector. If considering only the core PPI index (excluding food, energy and services) in August, it gained 0.3%MoM, a three-month consecutive increase. But year on year, the PPI index in August fell 0.2%YoY compared to the previous month (July), which was down 0.4%YoY.
Today, AWS expects the SET Index to move between 1,280 – 1,297 points. (Support at 1,286 1,280 and 1,274 points and resistance at 1,291 1,297 and 1,303 points). The recommended stocks are SUPER, TU, THANI, HANA and BJC.
1) Benefit from a successful vaccine development in the near future (Short term trading 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CENTEL and MINT
2) Benefit according to the season (Short term trading 1-2 months) – BGRIM, CKP and GPSC
3) Benefit from the stimulus package (Short term trading 1-3 months) – CPALL, CRC, HMPRO, BJC, OSP, CBG, MTC, CK, BEM, SEAFCO, PYLON, TASCO, COM7 and WHA
4) Dividend Play (Middle term investing 6-12 months) – KKP, TISCO, QH, LH, ORI, NOBLE, DIF, INTUCH, HANA, EASTW, TTW, EGCO and RATCH
5) Long-term cumulative shares (DCA) (Investing more than 1 year) – ADVANC, AOT, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, DIF and PTT