Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on November 16, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expects the SET this week (16-20 Nov) to move in a range of 1,238 / 1,321 points. The SET is still likely to increase after last week, the market raised 86.39 points (+6.86%), a positive sentiment this week coming from (1) the baht appreciation from Capital Fund Inflow after China congratulated Joe Biden, though the election results are not yet official, it can be considered to build confidence in investments.
(2) The progress on vaccine development and (3) increased stimulus from the ECB in December 2020, easing concerns over the overall economy of the Eurozone that has a chance to recession in 4Q20.
However, there will be periodic pressure on the overall investment due to risk factors from the COVID-19 situation that the number of new infections continues to increase, especially in the U.S. The number of new infected cases increasing by nearly 200,000 per day, the economic recovery remains uncertain.
For investment strategy, AWS continues to weigh in Global Play.
Market Consensus cuts crude oil demand in 2020, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) expecting global oil demand to drop 8.8 million barrels (formerly 8.4 million barrels) down to 91.3 million barrels per day.
The Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its 2020 estimate of global oil demand to 90 million barrels per day and downgraded crude oil demand forecast in 2021 to 96.3 million barrels per day.
This is partly due to the uncertainty of the COVID-19 epidemic situation. In particular, the increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19 in the U.S. which was the lowest level since 2013, despite progress on vaccine development but it still takes time for the epidemic to be suppressed.
Technical View – Today, AWS expects the SET Index to move between 1,333-1,368 points. The recommended stocks are VGI, CHG, m, SAPPE and ACE.
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU
2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
4) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB