CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand) forecasted CPALL Public Company Limited (CPALL) to report a net loss of 81 million baht in 2Q20F due to weaker convenience store (CVS) operations following lockdowns, caused by the coronavirus outbreak at its peak in the quarter and cut CPALL’s target price at ฿79.00/share.
Adding into the negative forecast, CGS-CIMB also expected CVS’s SSSG to decrease 21% YoY in 2Q20F, and gross margin would fall by 200bp YoY to 26.3%.
However, the analyst expected that the downfall would bottom out in the second quarter as the beginning of July marked a recovery for the company when schools and universities opened and the nightlife restriction was lifted. Moreover, CGS-CIMB also pointed out that traffic at stores inside petrol stations has also been increasing following the resumption of domestic travel. Thus, the analyst expected CPALL to return to profits in 3Q20F onwards.
In addition, CGS-CIMB believed that a potential dip in share price from the up-coming weak results would present an opportunity to accumulate the stock.