Krungsri Securities (KSS) released an analysis for the trading session on February 15, 2021 indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The SET Index fell 9 points (-0.6%) Thursday to close at 1,508 in Bt106b turnover, in the absence of fresh catalysts and amid tight SET valuation. Selling pressure in banking and petrochemical counters dragged the index lower while OR registered large gains at debut.
KSS stated that the SET could stage a rebound to 1,520 – 1,525 points on optimism over US stimulus, a spike in oil prices (>US$60/bbl), and positive surprise in Japan’s 4Q20 GDP growth (12.7%). However, there may be selling amid tight SET valuation (30x PER), which could pull the index lower intraday.
Thailand’s 4Q20 GDP growth estimated at -5.4%, 1Q21 growth at -4%: The NESDC will report 4Q20 GDP data today. The market expects 5.4-5.5% growth, taking 2020 growth to -6.4%. Krungsri Bank expects 1Q21 GDP to shrink again, by 4%, before swinging to positive growth in 2Q21 and +2.5% in 2021F.
KSS expected PTT group to deliver good results this week: TOP and PTTGC will release results on Monday, OR on Wednesday, and PTT on Thursday. The security company expected most to deliver healthy earnings, especially refinery and petrochemical units which should book large stock and FX gains.
KSS estimated OR’s fair value at Bt20-30 (based on 20x PER for retail gas station operations, 30 PER for retail units, and Bt1 EPS for 2021). Therefore, the current price at Bt29.25 seems expensive.