Merrill Lynch (ML), an American investing and wealth management division of Bank of America, has published an analysis indicating that the firm expected global electric-vehicle trend to be bullish from 2021 onward.
“We are bullish on the sector given a stricter regulatory push in the EU & China to achieve net-zero emission and stronger customer pull to electric vehicles (xEVs),” wrote ML, while expecting global xEV to grow 34% CAGR in 2020-2025E.
Meanwhile, ML expected global xEV battery demand to rise by 52% CAGR from 2020-2025E, driven by higher EV sales, Dual-Credit Schemes in China and customers’ willingness to turn to xEV due to subsidies expansions and tax incentives.
Among battery types, ML saw high nickel batteries (NCMA) to post the highest growth of 71% CAGR given its high energy density. NCMA market share should jump from 2% in 19 to 35% in 2030.
Meanwhile, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery would continue to grow especially in China due to the cost advantage, but at a lower growth rate of 33% CAGR when compared to NCMA. LFP market share should remain at 21% in 2030E.
More importantly, EV battery pack cost is expected to decline to $104/kWh in 2025E from the current level at $175/kWh as technological breakthrough in major components and an improvement in the manufacturing process should help lower the cost.
As in Thailand, Energy Absolute Public Company Limited (EA), KCE Electronics Public Company Limited (KCE), Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) and Global Power Synergy Public Company Limited (GPSC) are the early movers that led EV trends in the country.
Out of the four companies, ML picked EA with a fair value of Bt108 on an assumption of EA’s 50GWH battery plant. KCE with a fair value of Bt100 on earnings trend and the market hype. BANPU with a fair value of Bt16.40, seeing the joining with Durapower to add a value to BANPU by Bt3.00.