Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on October 1, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
AWS expected the SET today (1 Oct) to continue to exhibit side-way volatility despite positive factors from the progress in the U.S. stimulus package at the White House and Congress to come back to negotiate again yesterday (30 Sep) and there were opinions that began to be consistent.
However, the security company believed that this is what the market already expects to reach an agreement before the U.S. presidential election on 3 Nov, while the same risk factors from concerns about the COVID-19 situation that spread, including concerns about the uncertainty that will arise from returning to the ceiling & floor at +/- 30% and adjusting the short sell threshold that will start today for the first day.
AWS maintained its forecast for this week’s movement frame (28 Sep – 2 Oct) at 1,226-1,279 points. AWS’ investment strategy remains the same, focusing on holding more than 50% of cash and investing in Laggard play, Defensive Stock (Dividend Stock) and DCA stocks based on its Theme Investment.
The BoT‘s outlook on Thai GDP is expected quarterly GDP compared to YoY to continuously contract until 1Q21 and will be positive again in 2Q21 from a low base in 2Q20. In addition, the World Bank expects economies in East Asia and the Pacific in 2020 to grow only 0.9%, the lowest growth rate since 1967, during 6M20, China’s economy shrank by 1.8%, while other countries in the region experienced an average 4% contraction.
The U.S. Department of Commerce reported the third GDP forecast report, the last estimate in 2Q20, expects that the U.S. economy will contract 31.4% for two consecutive quarters, indicating a contraction in the economy.
Today, AWS expected the SET Index to move between support at 1,228/1,220 points and resistance at 1,235/1,247, the recommended stocks are PTL, GULF and TKN.
1) Laggard Stocks (Short-term Trading within 1 month) – BAM, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, GPSC, MTC and WHA
2) Benefit from a successful vaccine development and opening countries to receive tourists measure (Short term trading 1-3 months) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Benefit according to the season (Short term trading 1-2 months) – BGRIM, CKP and GPSC
4) Benefit from the stimulus package (Short term trading 1-3 months) – CPALL, CRC, HMPRO, BJC, OSP, CBG, MTC, CK, BEM, SEAFCO, PYLON, TASCO, COM7 and WHA
5) Dividend Play (Middle term investing 6-12 months) – KKP, TISCO, QH, LH, ORI, NOBLE, DIF, INTUCH, HANA, EASTW, TTW, EGCO and RATCH
6) Long-term cumulative shares (DCA) (Investing more than 1 year) – ADVANC, AOT, BDMS, BEM, CPALL, DIF and PTT