Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on November 18, 2020, indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
The overall investment today – AWS expected the SET today (18 Nov) to have a downward trend over the region market from internal political factors while foreign risks are concerned about the global COVID-19 situation, especially in the U.S. and Europe, reflected by the volatility of crude oil prices today (18 Nov).
The MPC meeting must be followed, especially opinions on the direction of the Thai economy for the remainder of 2020 and 2021, AWS still believed the MPC will maintain the same interest rate of 0.50%.
For investment strategy, AWS recommended taking short-term profit after the stock market jumped 154.86 points (+13.0%) in November and gradually accumulated stocks in Dividend play and DCA for long-term investment. The focus is to hold cash in the proportion of 50%-60% to reduce the risk of fluctuation in the short-term.
The political situation yesterday (17 Nov) after a clash of two protesters to follow the parliamentary meeting since morning to follow up on a resolution to draft a constitutional amendment, putting pressure on the overall investment in the SET Index in the afternoon, especially when demonstrators tried to break through the barricade, leading to clashes with the police until it led to the use of high-pressure water vehicles injecting water mixed with tear gas into the crowd while considering the draft amendments to the total of 7 constitutional laws, it is still uncertain.
It depends on the voting of the MPs and senators whether there will be a draft amendment to the constitution or not. AWS looked at it as a factor that depresses the SET Index today.
The market has returned to reflect on the risky fundamentals of the COVID-19 pandemic situation after the continued increase in response to the ongoing progress in vaccine development in the past.
The situation in Europe still has a high rate of infection despite the announcement of lockdown measures in many countries, in addition to the dire situation in India and Brazil, the COVID-19 situation in the U.S. continued to increase daily new infections at an average rate of 150,000-160,000 last week, causing concerns that the U.S. authorities will return to announce a lockdown measure again which will affect the economic recovery and the need for oil.
Recently, the price of crude oil has fluctuated greatly from concerns about the issue.
Technical View – Today, AWS expected the SET Index to move between 1,326-1,367 points. The recommended stocks are MC, SAWAD, BLA, TKN and BCPG.
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, SCC, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC, IVL, CPF and TU
2) Stocks which obtained the benefit from the nearest successful of COVID-19 vaccine (Trading within 1 month) – AOT, AAV, BA, ERW, M, CRC, CENTEL, MINT, WHA and AMATA
3) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
4) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB