Juan Guaido

The humanitarian and political crisis in Venezuela has turned the nation into the stage for geopolitical contention. Stricken by food shortages, economic collapse, and hyperinflation so severe people weigh money for buying groceries. The crisis in Venezuela has reached another critical point. Venezuela, somehow, has two presidents at the moment. One accused of corruption and egregious human rights violations, while the other president is proclaimed by the Venezuelan National Assembly. So, in more than one aspect, the Bolivar Republic of Venezuela is being torn apart. Maduro was re-elected, or “rigged-elected” in May last year as president in an election that saw his opposition in disarray and boycotting the vote altogether. Vox reported that during elections for state governors back in October, the National Electoral Council, which is dominated by openly pro-Maduro sympathizers, moved the location of hundreds of heavily pro-opposition polling stations just hours before the vote. However, Maduro’s staple for control over Venezuelans is that he has the support of Russia and China, and holds sway over the nation's assets which is most crucial in keeping the military at command. Juan Guaido has been acknowledged as interim president of Venezuela by the US, the EU, the UK, and Lima. But most importantly, he seems to have the support of the anti-Maduro protesters. Guaido was named by the Venezuelan National Assembly as interim president as a remedy to Maduro's illegitimacy as president. However, it is likely that Guaido will remain in power due to the popularity from being the knight in shining armour. Which, is the coup d'etat cliche that we have seen over and over, again and again. So, the contention of the Venezuelan Stage is that, is there a righteous coup? The Venezuelan National Assembly's interpretation is that by constitutional law, when the president has failed the position's legitimacy a new president could be proclaimed to oversee the transition towards an election for a new president. However, Russia, China, and Maduro is calling it a coup. A coup that is backed by foreign powers to be exact. Maduro has gone on national television to address the US that if further interference into Venezuela's sovereignty is pursued, the Americans will be encountering another Vietnam scenario. With the difference being that Russia has sold state of the art weaponry and aircrafts to Venezuela, and that China has invested heavily in the country in exchange for oil, as well. The US has a history in Latin America, a history of backing political transitions by way of military means, and none had ended with much democratic progress. However, the stakes in Venezuela are monumental, and the implications has the potential to set a precedence for a totally different game in the US's backyard. If Russia has troops in Venezuela, the Trump and Putin bromance will turn very bitter for both. And if China gets a foot in Venezuela, the US's challenge to China's dominance in the South China seas will possibly become less of a priority for the US. Vice versa, if the US and its allies consolidate the overthrow of Maduro and Russia and China loses their connection to Venezuela's oil reserves and influence in Latin America, the containment of the US's only two real adversaries will become much more solidified. On January 28th, according to Reuters, White House national security adviser John Bolton appeared at a news conference with the words "5,000 troops to Colombia," written on his notepad. A gesture construed to be more than just a slip of confidentiality from the ultra hawkish security adviser. The mechanics of political power are perpetually turning its cogs, and continues to churn for the interests of the few with each theatre and stage of contention left in ruins. Will Venezuela be Latin America’s Syria? Hoping for peaceful resolutions and well wishing would probably had worked long ago if they were ever meant to.

Juan Guaido

The Venezuelan Stage

บริษัท บูรพาทัศน์ (1999) จำกัด