Asia Wealth Securities (AWS) released an analysis for the trading session on January 18, 2021 indicating the essential events in the stock market as follows:
Today’s investment overview – AWS expects the SET this week (18-22 Jan) to move within the range of 1,489-1,567 points. The SET Index is volatile after testing 1,560 points before declining last week.
Topics to follow this week are at the oath of new U.S. President Joe Biden (20 Jan), the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting and the Bank of Japan meeting (21 Jan) and the situation of the epidemic of COVID-19 both in Thailand and abroad, especially from China (depressing commodity markets and energy stocks).
As well as monitoring important economic reports, including China GDP during 4Q20, Thailand trade balance figures (Import and export), Preliminary PMI survey results in January 2021 of the U.S., Eurozone, Germany and Britain, as well as the weekly number of U.S. applications for first-time unemployment benefits.
Last week, the Market Consensus is expected to begin declining.
For investment strategy, AWS recommends selling and taking profit at full value or exceed the fundamental value while new investment round, for short-term investors, focuses on speculation, stocks with unique positive factors (Stocks benefiting from lower crude oil prices, SCC, TASCO, TOA, EPG, GULF, BGRIM, GPSC, OSP, BGC and CPALL) while investors waiting to accumulate when the SET has dropped 1,510-1,490 points according to AWSr Core Investment.
WTI crude for February delivery closed USD52.36 a barrel, down USD1.21 (-2.3%) on concerns about a new epidemic of COVID-19 in China and the situation in the U.S. and the European Union will affect the economy and the oil demand in many countries, especially in China where more than 1,000 people with COVID-19 have been found in the north of the country and the government has ordered lockdowns in many cities to stop the spread of the COVID-19. AWS looks at the short-term negative for energy stocks.
Thai baht fluctuates in the short term which AWS expects the baht this week (18-22 Jan) has a chance to return to appreciate in the range of Bt29.6-30.0 per dollar (BoT reports the latest baht value at Bt30 per dollar) after the new U.S. President announced the economic stimulus USD1.9tn resulting in the U.S. dollar come back to appreciate but the stance of the Fed chair continued to signal further easing. Including the U.S. interest rate trend that has no opportunity to hike in the near term so that AWS sees an opportunity that the baht will appreciate again.
1) Global Play (Trading within 1 month) – PTT, PTTEP, TOP, PTTGC and SCC
2) Green energy stocks (Trading within 3-6 months) – GPSC, EGCO, GULF, BGRIM, BPP, BCPG, EA and ACE
3) Expectations for the vaccine and increased stimulus measures (Trading for 3-6 months) – BBL, KKP, BEM, CPF, TU, M, OSP, CPALL, HMPRO, CRC and CHG
4) Stocks which expected that the performance in 4Q20 will outstand (1-2 months) – SAWAD, GULF, SPALI, ORI, WHA and STA
5) Dividend Play (Middle-term trading 6-12 months) – SC, LH, QH, KKP, TISCO, RATCH, DIF, INTUCH, EASTW and TTW
6) Long term accumulative stocks (DCA) (Long-term trading over 1 year) – AOT, BEM, ADVANC, WHA, LH, CPALL, CPF, BDMS, HMPRO, BBL and KTB