TOP Expects to Benefit from High Refining Margin amid Rising Demand and Reopening

TOP expected a significant recovery in 4Q amid rising gross refining margin on higher demand from winter season and reopening.

Mrs. Wanida Boonpiraks, Executive Vice President Finance and Accounting of Thai Oil Public Company Limited (TOP), stated that the economic recovery, the reopening in November and the energy crunch crisis will boost TOP’s operating performance, especially in the fourth quarter.

Due to the lockdown measure in 3Q21, TOP has been running with 98% production capacity, which could result in lower production in the quarter, but gross profit margin has risen and is expected to continue throughout 4Q21 due to the winter and travelling season in the U.S. that will spike demand for energy, which could potentially result in higher crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, jet fuel also saw an acceleration in response to the global reopening, which will be a positive factor for TOP as well.

Singapore gross refining margins (GRM) were at $5.29 per barrel and Singapore jet fuel refining margins were at $13.47 a barrel. Both indicators made tremendous recovery from their low during Covid-19 crisis in 2020.


Country Group Securities (CGS) expected TOP to record a net profit of 3.2 billion baht in 3Q21, representing an increase by 353% YoY and 53% QoQ, due to the rise in GRM and stock gain. CGS gave a buy recommendation at a target price of Bt67.00 per share, expecting positive performance in 4Q21-2022.

Trinity Securities estimated TOP’s 3Q net profit at 2.6 billion baht, representing an increase by 269% YoY and 24% QoQ, giving a target price at Bt72.00 per share. Meanwhile, Capital Nomura Securities (CNS) gave a target price at Bt75.00 and Bualuang Securities (BLS) at Bt70.00 per share.

Mr. Suwat Sinsadok, Managing Director of FSS International Investment Advisory (FSSIA) and a specialist in energy field pointed out that once Thailand starts to reopen, demand for jet fuel will return and tremendously support refinery stocks’ performance. Among all three refinery stocks, TOP will benefit the most in the recovery of jet fuel due to its low base during Covid-19 pandemic, followed by SPRC and ESSO.


TOP closed at Bt57 on October 19, 2021, decreased Bt0.75 per share or 1.30% with a trading value of 1,128 million baht.

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