Commodity Update April 1, 2021: OPEC+ Downgrades Oil Demand in 2021, GRM Remains Negative

Commodity update as of 10:50 local time in Thailand on April 1, 2021

• OPEC+ downgraded its oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day (BD) in 2021, reflecting concerns about the recovery of market among many countries lock-down measures to control the spread of COVID-19, in 2021 oil demand growth will increase 5.6 million barrels per day (MBD) compared to the year 2020 when oil demand contracted by 8.9 MBD. OPEC+ expected global crude oil supply to increase 200,000 BD to 1.6MBD. OPEC+ view of global oil demand and supply forecast add weight to the possibility that OPEC+ will decide to maintain a measure to cut crude production at 6.9MBD, and Saudi Arabia is ready to support extension of the voluntary cut-off period for at least one more month (ending May 2021).
• Refinery Margin continued to trade in negative territory after the massive fire incident atPertamina’s Balongan refinery, Indonesia. The Balongan Refinery is one of Indonesia’s largest refineries and also one of its most crucial, as it feeds fuel and petrochemicals to the greater Jakarta area. The refinery has 125,000 bpd capacity from a total of 72 tanks. In addition, Pertamina Chief Executive Officer Nicke Widyawati said that the explosion did not damage the refinery process.